ASIA - FAR EAST
08/09/06 Back to Lebanon. Folks, I would propose that right now the most serious question before the world is whether or not President George W. Bush is caving in to the "international community" on the issue of a "cease fire", or whether he is engaged in a strategy of "rope-a-dope", with or without Israeli complicity. Given the public record, either case could be made. Arguing the "rope-a-dope" scenario, August 22 looms large (see 08/06 below). Israel is in the midst of adjustments in its strategy, folding toward an ever more aggressive pursuit in Lebanon of its Hezbollah (Iranian) tormentors. No predictions here, either way; the public record is yet too murky. Either way, we are coming upon some dangerous moments that could heavily define the Century before us. The decision points that matter are Washington, Jerusalem, Tehran, Moscow and Beijing. The rest is a side show. JES
07/04/06 North Korea launches its Taepodong-2 missile, which fails after 36 miles, as we launch a space shuttle, praying it holds together. There will be those who will say that the failure of the Taepodong-2 missile proves any concern is not warranted, and those who will say upon the safe return of the shuttle that NASA's got everything under control. The Marines have a term for these kinds of situations: SNAFU. You, of course, can fill in the blanks. JES
06/23/06 I confess to losing patience with all this "negotiating" going on over the issue of nukes in Iran and long range missiles in North Korea. We don't seem to understand that these people are using us and buying time; they regard us as weak and defeatable, and at the current rate they may be right. The only effective way to rearrange the discussion is to drop a 2000lb bomb directly on that North Korean launch site tonight; it would send everyone that matters a message and re-invigorate a more useful discussion. South Korea, and Senator Richard Lugar, R-IN, will get over it. The Iranian nuke sites should be close behind. Let's all grow up and get on with what everyone knows has to be done. JES
06/17/06 The President has had a good week on Iraq, and he deserves it. Aside from the timely passing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a treasure trove of intelligence data was captured, enabling our team effort with the new Iraqi government to really run down trouble makers. All indicators point toward a further collapse of al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Our next problem in the "War on Terror", aka WW IV, is Iran. The issue here is not whether to take out Iran's developing nuclear weapons program, but when, a largely political matter on several levels. The military effort called for here would involve massive highly targeted air strikes, and aside from some very limited Special Ops assignments, no boots on the ground. Post Nuke, Iranians can work through their own political problems, which are considerable, although we should be standing by to assist pro-democracy elements in their political battle from a distance. The critical political challenge will be continuing good relations and cooperation with Iraqi Shia, now the dominate force in Iraq. At play are the loyalties of Arab v. Persian, or common Shia v. new Iraqi national freedom. We also need to be prepared to counter, from Iraq, any possible ground assaults from Iran against Iraq, but again, I would imagine this to be a largely tactical air problem.
Now it so happens that as this is written, reports are coming in that North Korea is possibly immanent with a long range missile test. It occurs to the Mountain Observer that a highly targeted air strike on the launch pad would accrue a number of productive results politically, diplomatically and militarily, about the world. It is sad that, perhaps, none of this discussion might have been necessary had The West been more alert and responsive to these threats years ago. Left unattended, cancer spreads, ultimately requiring radical surgery. JES
09/21/05 In talks with North Korea over their future existence, between a kaleidoscope of parties with a variety of interests, motives and concerns, the North Koreans continue to bargain for freebies, as if in a position to do so. Now there may well be merit in the idea of supplying electric power to North Korea in exchange for dismantling the North Korean nuclear program, but the wires should originate in the south, and the switch should be located in Seoul. JES
08/06/05 In our inventory of international relations needing to be healed, nothing quite equals our relationship with Vietnam. Hurt and trauma continue to abound 30 years later. We are in the process of concluding a military training program agreement with them now, perhaps the toe in the water of a future relationship that could prove very useful in the years to come in the building struggle to counter Chinese expansionism in Asia. There is a long history of conflict between Vietnam and China; they actually had a brief war after we pulled out in 1975. Currently, the Vietnamese are coming to us, not China, seeking a mentor for the solution to their enormous problems. We should engage in measured response. JES
08/03/05 It seems that the USA may be finally waking up to the challenges poised to us by still Communist China. The Mountain Observer has seen this coming for years, and after September 11, 2001 began to make the point that our necessary distractions in the Middle East would only be viewed by the Chinese to an opportunity to facilitate their own skullduggery in the Far East, indeed around the world. And this is exactly what has been happening, referred to occasionally by this writer, but otherwise generally ignored. It seems now, however, that the whole Chinese enterprise is coming into focus, even for the heretofore blind, including American "Intelligence". If you are still clueless about this issue, start paying attention. It might even help to study old issues of the Mountain Observer. JES
05/01/05 Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Mountain Observer has maintained that the greatest international threat to the United States, going forward into the new century, is China. I now believe that the nature of that threat has evolved into what may be more accurately described as a challenge, rather than a threat. At the same time, it is now clear that the actual direct threats are multiple, having in common an actual lawless terrorist quality that is forcing a severe readjustment of our military and intelligence configurations. The real direct threats today seem to have in common the "ideology" of IslamoFascism born of Wahabism, supported by certain states not quite willing to consider civilized behavior, and frequently encouraged by others generally outside the Anglosphere orbit. However, I digress from the focus of my point here, which is China.
Shortly after the September 11 attacks, I expressed concern in these letters that the properly prioritized distraction of issues in the Middle East would compete with our necessary attention to China, and mischief would ensue. Actual events have proven the correctness of that concern, and the mischief is manifest is the straits of Taiwan. The buildup on the mainland side of the straits is accelerating, and China's naval capacities continue to grow, with Russia's help, including a submarine based missile capacity capable of hitting our country directly. The Chinese strategy with respect to Taiwan, is to intimidate the ROC (Taiwan) into surrender, and the military component, to be credible, includes the need to neutralize the capacity of the American fleet and political will to directly accept the military threat. While their ability to neutralize the American fleet any time in the near future is dubious, their ability to erect the credible threat of direct attack upon our cities is real, and with it the political willingness of Americans to defend Taiwan. An additional part of the strategy is wearing down the Taiwanese themselves. There is a growing political constituency on the island that seems tempted to exchange freedom for trade. We, ourselves, have enabled the Chinese buildup by tolerating a trade deficit for many years that has funded the weapons. There is a positive to the trade issue, however, and that is the growing dependency of the Chinese on American engineering standards and practices. However, they have a larger problem, which is the fact that political freedom is non-existent, and time is running against those who will not let go. So it is that the Chinese themselves are hung up on the horns of a dilemma as to choosing between the benefits to themselves of trade, or going to war, and furthermore, at what point North Korea becomes more of a liability than an asset. It is not clear how all of this will eventually play out, except that it is clear that the United States need not display "provocative weakness" only to invite ill-advised temptation and adventure on the part of mis-informed Chinese generals. JES.
11/03/04 One error in foreign policy I see shaping up is the false convenience of pretending that we can afford to ignore the growing menace of Communist China. The illusion that the tiger can be tamed by trade will eventually be exposed for the fraud that it is. North Korea could not continue without Communist Chinese complicity and Taiwan is slowly being sucked into the vortex.
11/03/04 The President should roll out the new bunker buster bombs and just get on with business in Iran, with free tickets in the press box for Kim Jong Il and Abu Musab al Zarqawi.
FMOWEB 110-201 ASIA-FAR EAST