FOREIGN AFFAIRS- IRAN
RETURN TO AMERICAN FOREIGN AFFAIRS
09/29/07 Mr. President, the options regarding Iran:
1) You can wait for reformers to overthrow the current regime.
The information available to me indicates that this cannot happen before nuclear weapons capability has been achieved for a lengthy list of reasons.
The real problem with this idea is that even if the reformers were successful, their opposition (defenders of the current regime) would still be powerful, with attendant political instability going forward. What guarantee is there that such a political stew, however configured, would actually choose to accommodate us with a credible change of direction on Iran's nuclear program and ambitions? At the very least, we would be confronted with a new, and additional, Pakistani dilemma.
2). You can continue to wait for others, through various proposed schemes of economic coercion to "force" a change in Iranian attitude on the issue, which completely underestimates and misunderstands the Iranian attitude on the issue. Continuing to wait for a miracle to happen is wasting time while allowing the situation to continue to deteriorate. There is the further unsatisfactory consequence of allowing others to operate our own foreign policy and oversee our own national security interests. I would remind you that similar dithering in late 2002 and early 2003 bought the time Saddam Hussein and his Russian pals needed to apparently squirrel away probable WMD and to prepare for the insurgency that began to unfold in April of 2003. You should have learned by now that you just can't play around with these people, or Democrats, a distinction too frequently without a difference.
3). The hard fact of the matter is that the military option is the only responsible option available to the United States, in behalf of not only our own security interests, but that of the rest of the world as well. I know that the planning and preparedness are largely in place. And I speak not of something tentative, but the full bore plan to knock out their entire military capability. You know of which I speak. Do it. Soon. And worry not about your critics; they are beyond being mollified, and you have already spent too much time and effort in that regard. Do this thing now, let the world squeal, and leave office in January of 2009 knowing that you, in fact, did the right thing. In the years ahead, you will come to be honored. JES
09/26/07 In Farsi, the suffix "jad" translates as "filthy under shorts". Mahmoud etc., aka Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president of the IslamicFascist republic of Iran, aka Persia, finally departs the Liberal intellectual and moral cesspool of Columbia University, the United Nations, and New York. We have just witnessed, on full display, the legacy of decades of the full intellectual and moral corruption of American education. Chunks of this nation are adrift, which is why I am on this mountain top. Few know it, but I have an ancient link to the institution of Columbia University, and New York. God willing, may they all rot in hell.
General David Petraeus, carry on. JES
09/16/07 War is coming with Iran. It is not a question of whether, but when. This will be primarily an Air Force and Navy deal, with Special Ops only on the ground. The President cannot responsibly not do it. JES
09/15/07 Notice that there has been no complaint or outcry from any of the Arab gulf states concerning the Israeli air strick against Iranian client Syria last week. Now it turns out that Turkey provided Israel with the key intelligence. In the Arab Sunni dominated gulf state region, fear of a nuclear armed Iranian/Syrian/Hezbollah axis is palpable. JES
04/01/07 April Fools Day. Regarding the funding of the war, schedules for bringing the troops home, and as many unrelated ear marks as Congress can tack on. We hope the President means it when he promises a veto. This is one of those key moments in history when an entire culture teeters on the precipice of suicide or salvation, literally. We are on the edge of a major confrontation with Iran, either which way. It occurres to the Mountain Observer, as it has to Newt Gingrich, that Iran's only gasoline refinery is a very inviting target as the price we might expect of Iran for their continued meddling in Iraq, Lebanon and beyond. This is, no doubt, a contingency option at a certain point. Newt suggests following up with a naval blockade to shut down gasoline imports, this too an obvious contingency option. However, sooner or later, we must end Iranian sophistry about a nuclear program for peaceful purposes.
As Margaret Thatcher advised the President's father, "It's no time to go wobbly, George". What is truly disturbing is that the Bush clan seems to need this sort of advice and council from time to time. General David Petraeus: carry on. JES
03/24/07 Again the Chinese are wooing the Russians for Siberian oil. Russian and Chinese foot dragging in the United Nations on really tough trade sanctions against Iran are running up against a wall as Iran's complicity in sabotaging Iraq become more widely exposed. The pieces of the puzzle are as follows: The American "surge" in Iraq is showing signs of results, and in Congress, Democrats are stumbling in their efforts to sabotage the war effort. The renewed credibility of American determination suggests the real possibility of a collision with Iran, not only over the issue of Iranian nuclear weapons ambition, buy also over Iranian hegemonic ambition in Iraq and the entire gulf state region. The United States has pushed very hard in the Security Counsel for some really tough economic sanctions against Iran, and both the Russians and the Chinese have stood in the way. Russia historically has had an interest in trade access to the south, many times frustrated. The Chinese are rather desperate for oil to power their exploding economy; they have very little of their own. While the Mountain Observer is generally skeptical concerning the effectiveness of trade sanctions and boycotts, in this situation with Iran the fact of the matter is that they are very vulnerable to some real damage if a genuine and tough boycott was applied and enforced. Even so, boycotts have a limited lifespan of effectiveness; witness the post Gulf War experience with the boycott against Saddam's Iraq. The appeal to our side (Democrats excluding themselves) to a tough boycott against Iran is that it might have sufficient short term effectiveness to force an internal political correction to the power of the mullahs and the policy ambitions of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against many of his scared neighbors. The Iranian economy today is on shaky legs, and ordinary Iranians are politically very restless. The Mountain Observer remains skeptical that all this diplomatic maneuvering will produce effective results, but at the same time recognizes the political need to run the trapline. And I would suggest that both the Russians and the Chinese recognize that we are closing in on the end of that trapline, even if American Democrats don't. If the Russians and the Chinese don't begin to cooperate more closely with the American efforts to utilize the boycott route, then the United States is really left with no options whatsoever but to confront the Iranians directly militarily, with negative implications both for the supply of Chinese oil and a spectrum of Russian (Putin) national priorities. Thanks to Mitch McConnell, we may yet be able to stall off the desire of Democrats to run and hide under a pillow. JES
02/26/07 As we have consistently argued in the past, the presence or absence of WMD's in Saddam's Iraq was always a phony issue, and it was an original error on the part of the Administration to have ever allowed the issue to be framed as it was as a justification to go to war. The history of WMD in Saddam's Iraq, and its use, was well documented; the status of the situation at the time of our invasion irrelevant. What was relevant was the broader orientation of the regime in its associations and support of the pan IslamicFascist movement, considerable, well documented and clearly threatening to all except those who wear rose colored glasses. As for the WMD issue specifically, an explanation remains to be made for clear evidence of Russian support and complicity in what appears to have been a removal program conducted in February 2003, just prior to our invasion. What might have been removed, perhaps to Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, consistently under Syrian control? The Russians have never been publicly called on this, possibly for security reasons unclear at this time. Other resources within Iraq itself remain unexplored, or unrevealed for security reasons.
I re-visit these points as we move forward on the issue of Iran, and what to do about it. Actually, what to do about Iran, to this Observer, is pretty obvious. The problem here is the public relations problem of dealing with a domestic American opposition to our own national security interests. Stay tuned. JES
10/07/06 How much longer are we going to allow Iran and the United Nations to run our foreign policy before we lower the boom ? JES
09/01/06 Well folks, 08/31 has come and gone, and Iran has dug in its heels. From their point of view, the West has no credibility, and perhaps they are right. What they understand, and too few people in the West understand, is that there is no political solution to this problem. The problem is religious, and non negotiable. From the Islamic perspective Christians, Jews, and Secularists are all infidels and subject to destruction. It is Allah's will, and martyrdom in Allah's name is blessed. There is no room here for negotiation. This is a form of theocratic fascism completely out of control. We, of course, could simply let them twist in the wind, except for the nukes, and the suicide bombers, all very portable. Islamic believers, not simply content with their opinions, but invested with the self-righteousness of the active destruction of all non-believers, are the functional equivalent of rabid dogs, a fact not anticipated by western multiculturalists and the high priests of moral equivalence. Perhaps something to keep in mind when you go to vote this Fall. Meanwhile, the folks at Ellsworth AFB and on Diego Garcia hopefully are in a preparation mode. High noon at the OK corral is fast approaching. JES
08/27/06 Reality is fast approaching, and Iran has made its position very clear on its nuclear intentions. The West is blinded by self denial, liberal guilt, moral cowardice and intellectual obfuscation of the real world choices confronting the future of civilization. There is a choice to be made, and not much time left. President George W. Bush, you are the only person left on the planet in a position to make that choice. It is high noon at the OK corral. I believe you know that. Which way is it going to be? JES.
08/15/06 Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the Israeli Cabinet surrender to the United nations and Hezbollah in a shocking display of incompetence that Israel will surely pay a heavy price in blood for at a future date. It is a major victory for Hezbollah; that is a simple fact. About this, I am speechless. JES
08/11/06 In accepting a UN ceasefire proposal, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert screws up. Where is Benjamin Netanyahu? Absolutely unbelievable. It's not clear here whether this was the direction Bush actually intended things to go. Need more details. JES
08/09/06 Back to Lebanon. Folks, I would propose that right now the most serious question before the world is whether or not President George W. Bush is caving in to the "international community" on the issue of a "cease fire", or whether he is engaged in a strategy of "rope-a-dope", with or without Israeli complicity. Given the public record, either case could be made. Arguing the "rope-a-dope" scenario, August 22 looms large (see 08/08/06 below). Israel is in the midst of adjustments in its strategy, folding toward an ever more aggressive pursuit in Lebanon of its Hezbollah (Iranian) tormentors. No predictions here, either way; the public record is yet too murky. Either way, we are coming upon some dangerous moments that could heavily define the Century before us. The decision points that matter are Washington, Jerusalem, Tehran, Moscow and Beijing. The rest is a side show. JES
08/08/06 Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised a response to U.S. proposals regarding Iranian nuclear development on August 22. Why this date? There are some well informed theories afloat that are down right scary, however this letter has never been a transmission belt for what could prove to be unfounded hysteria. We would only recommend that you follow events closely on or about that date. I will subsequently comment, if necessary. JES
08/04/06 Shiites demonstrate in Baghdad in behalf of Hezbollah, raging against both Israelis (Jews) and Americans. What are we to make of this? To start with, we don't make out of it proof that Bush is a dunce and our intervention in Iraq was an error. What we make out of it is that there are young hot heads of both Sunni and Shia persuasion, also willing to cut each others heads off. Our presence and efforts in Iraq have been directed at drawing out the potential in Islamic culture for the political growth and survival of cooler heads of a more moderate temperament. Much very tough love is called for, including such measures as Israel is currently delivering to Hezbollah. Now the Iraqi government and people are free to disinvite our presence anytime they wish. That is a calculated risk on our part, as it is on theirs. The Mountain Observer makes no hard predictions in this regard. However things work out eventually betwen Sunnis and Shia in Iraq, little notice is being given to our smashing success with the Kurds. Is there a Kurdistan in the future? Possibly, however a very delicate matter on several levels. Some forward thinking on our part is called for. Meanwhile, the toughest political issue in the entire Middle East has to do with the acceptance of Israel by Islam. That is an issue that we run away from at our peril. The resolution of this issue demands our ongoing support of the moderately inclined of the muslim persuasion coupled with an unambiguous rejection of those who resort to violence and intimidation outside the parameters of civilization as we understand it. No apologies or guilt trips are welcome here.
Repeating myself from 07/19,"during the 1930's, there were those who said of the Nazis that "first they went after the Jews, but it did not affect me. Then they went after the Catholics, but if did not affect me. Then they went after the Protestants, and the Liberals and people of color, but it did not affect me. Finally they came after me, and it was too late." America, you really need to wake up." JES
07/29/06 The fact of the matter is that things are not going well in Iraq. For months, all kinds of criticisms have been hurled at the Bush Administration, and while errors have been made, most of the complaint falls wide of the mark. The underling premise of most of the complaint is that our intervention in Iraq was an option ill chosen. It was an option only in the sense that the alternative was to do nothing about the existence of the Saddam Hussein regime. In the opinion of the Mountain Observer, that was not an option, and the President was correct to act. Today our real problem, inclusive of Iraq, is the larger issue of Arab culture in the extended Islamic sense. It was recently called to my attention that there is no direct translation in Arabic for the word, or concept of, "curiosity". Think about that, and the implications. Absent curiosity, one must be so self focused as to exclude consideration of others, and others ideas. Invested heavily in an Islamic perspective, there is no room for openness or tolerance. We are confronted by a culture never touched by the Enlightenment that so opened up the cultures of the West. The Marines can't fix that.
The Mountain Observer has, at times, expressed our concern that our efforts in the Middle East have occasionally strayed from the priority of staying focused on matters of our own national security and tempted toward broader irrelevances. I have been patient with the President's argument for regional "democracy" as a utility to serve our interests, and in theory he is correct decades in the future. The learning curve for all of us has been to understand the practical limits of deploying this idea today in the face of the existentialist threats of terrorism, including WMD, against us. Wading into the Iraqi thicket has been productive in forcing the IslamicFascist disease into the open. Better there than here. The destruction of Saddam destroyed the only credible center of Sunni military power, allowing attention to be focused on the more dangerous matter of Persian based Shia pretensions out of control. Which is the point of the current distraction in Iraq. We cannot "cut and run", but neither can we long afford the burden. The Mountain Observer has no easy answers to this problem, other than perseverance and patience. Pulling the plug on Iranian nukes would be helpful. There is a Sunni (Wahabi) v. Shia death struggle to be exploited so as to distract. Disarming Iranian nukes is a task that must be done sooner of latter anyway. There are those who argue that there is a current opportunity to do so. I would certainly agree with that. To delay and wait could be fatal. JES.
07/17/06 I am impressed so far with the leadership of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in the current battle with Hezbollah and Hamas. Under his leadership, Israel is finally coming to grips with reality, forcing open the splits, always there, between Shia and Wahabi, Arab and Persian and calling the bluff of IslamicFascists and gutless Western Francophiles, including most American Democrats. Ehud Olmert, just keep sending your pilots in hard and low: pound, pound, pound. Just chase Hezbollah back into Syria, and I would hope, follow the road to Damascus. Do not be afraid of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, lurking in the background. Hopefully he will be lured into a truly foolish act providing the pretext we need to "make our day". Meanwhile, we pray for the protection of the Israeli people, and the souls of those who have paid the highest price. America, real Americans that is, stand behind you. JES
06/23/06 I confess to losing patience with all this "negotiating" going on over the issue of nukes in Iran and long range missiles in North Korea. We don't seem to understand that these people are using us and buying time; they regard us as weak and defeatable, and at the current rate they may be right. The only effective way to rearrange the discussion is to drop a 2000lb bomb directly on that North Korean launch site tonight; it would send everyone that matters a message and re-invigorate a more useful discussion. South Korea, and Senator Richard Lugar, R-IN, will get over it. The Iranian nuke sites should be close behind. Let's all grow up and get on with what everyone knows has to be done. JES
06/21/06 Speaking of matters Iranian, go to www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Ahmadinejad%20letter.pdf . You may not be impressed, but millions of Muslims are. JES
06/17/06 The President has had a good week on Iraq, and he deserves it. Aside from the timely passing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a treasure trove of intelligence data was captured, enabling our team effort with the new Iraqi government to really run down trouble makers. All indicators point toward a further collapse of al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Our next problem in the "War on Terror", aka WW IV, is Iran. The issue here is not whether to take out Iran's developing nuclear weapons program, but when, a largely political matter on several levels. The military effort called for here would involve massive highly targeted air strikes, and aside from some very limited Special Ops assignments, no boots on the ground. Post Nuke, Iranians can work through their own political problems, which are considerable, although we should be standing by to assist pro-democracy elements in their political battle from a distance. The critical political challenge will be continuing good relations and cooperation with Iraqi Shia, now the dominate force in Iraq. At play are the loyalties of Arab v. Persian, or common Shia v. new Iraqi national freedom. We also need to be prepared to counter, from Iraq, any possible ground assaults from Iran against Iraq, but again, I would imagine this to be a largely tactical air problem.
Now it so happens that as this is written, reports are coming in that North Korea is possibly immanent with a long range missile test. It occurs to the Mountain Observer that a highly targeted air strike on the launch pad would accrue a number of productive results politically, diplomatically and militarily, about the world. It is sad that, perhaps, none of this discussion might have been necessary had The West been more alert and responsive to these threats years ago. Left unattended, cancer spreads, ultimately requiring radical surgery. JES
05/11/06 Speaking of who are we fighting in the "War on Terror", President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran is at the top of today's list. Short of an internal coup, and a major theological attitude adjustment on the part of Iranian mullahs, the Mountain Observer sees no alternative to the imperative of a hard surgical American air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Currently, the Administration is jumping through the diplomatic hoops and saying all the right things thought so necessary in an age of western blindness and amnesia. The final chapter on George W. Bush's legacy as President of the United States must be to make this hard decision. JES
02/13/06 Recent quotes of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad include the following:
"We ask the West to remove what they created sixty years ago (Israel) and if they do not listen to our recommendations, then the Palestinian nation and other nations will eventually do this for them,"
"Do the removal of Israel before it is too late and save yourself from the fury of regional nations,"
"How comes that insulting the prophet of Muslims worldwide is justified within the framework of press freedom, but investigating about the fairy tale Holocaust is not?"
"The real Holocaust is what is happening in Palestine where the Zionists avail themselves of the fairy tale of Holocaust as blackmail and justification for killing children and women and making innocent people homeless,"
"The policy of Iran has so far been pursuing nuclear technology within the framework of the NPT and IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), but if you (the West) continue efforts to deprive the Iranian nation from this (nuclear) right, then we would reconsider this policy,"
One need not allow for the absence of context to recognize that the possession of nuclear weapons in the hands of such personalities is not consistent with a happy future for the world. JES
12/31/05 Expect sometime during this new year that an attack will finally be made against Iranian nuclear facilities. It will most likely be accomplished by some combination of United States and Israeli assets. There is no way the stripped pants set can fix this problem; it is time for people to grow up. JES
10/10/05 The clock keeps ticking on the issue of Iranian nukes, possibly the biggest foreign policy issue of 2006. JES
08/13/05 The President steps up to the plate and categorically states the obvious: that the United States has a military option with regard to the issue of Iran's nuclear future. Unlike a certain recent Presidency, when a decision to exercise the obvious would not have been so obvious, this President has found it necessary, given the ambiguous signals of his predecessor, to further state that which ought to be obvious, which is that he will exercise the military option if left with no other choice. His statement accomplishes two things at once. Immediately, he is goosing the diplomatic process for a solution, which everyone would prefer. He is also taking the United States off the table of those who believe that diplomacy can be effective if the primary trump card is removed. Had the military option always and unambiguously been on the table, diplomacy perhaps could have already produced a meaningful result. That, of course, has not happened, nor will it. The belief by the Left that diplomacy can function in the absence of credible military force, which includes a willingness to use that force, prolonged the Cold War, and could be fatal in the face of Islamic Fascism. The tragedy here is that Islamic Fascist leadership has been mis-led for so long by western left-wing kumbaya diplomacy, provoking Islamic notions of weakness that does not exist except in the hearts of Democrats, that the world may have to learn this lesson the hard way. It is the prediction of this writer that, sadly, that is the way it will be. JES
MO 05 01 The Bush trip to Europe makes it very clear that we are not going to tolerate a nuclear Iran, and are preparing to draw the line. It was clearly the primary purpose of the trip to make this point, and to educate Europeans accordingly. They were invited to get "onboard", which is to say that failure to do so, and the consequences thereof, would become an European problem in history yet to be written. We are at war with Islamic Fascism, as we ought to be; those who fail to understand this are delusional. Americans are not enthusiastic about foreign adventure, and properly so. We are not imperialist by nature, nor is that our present purpose. Americans do believe in the right to defend themselves from threats to hearth and home. So it is that we have too patiently endured decades of violent incidents against us by Islamic Fascists mistaking our reluctance to respond for weakness. However, September 11, 2001 was a step too far. We have, as President, a real American, who can cut through the cloud of post modern nonsense that pollutes the minds of professors and their journalism students, and who knows how to call the bluff of international card sharks. Jocko Shearock, Gearhard Showturd and the Iranian mullahs should understand that High Noon is approaching fast. In a nuclear age, an age of missiles, shipping containers, international air travel and the internet, the luxury of hiding behind two oceans has disappeared. On the American frontier, is has always been unquestioned wisdom that it is best to remove the rattlesnake's head before it is necessary to remove its fangs. The fancy word on the east coast is preemption. Meanwhile, Americans continue to not be about imperialism, but freedom. God Bless cowboys, you know, the "stupid" ones. JES
11/03/04 The President should roll out the new bunker buster bombs and just get on with business in Iran, with free tickets in the press box for Kim Jong Il and Abu Musab al Zarqawi.
FMOWEB 110-043 FOREIGN AFFAIRS- IRAN