FOREIGN AFFAIRS- IRAQ-WEAPONS of MASS DESTRUCTION
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02/26/07 As we have consistently argued in the past, the presence or absence of WMD's in Saddam's Iraq was always a phony issue, and it was an original error on the part of the Administration to have ever allowed the issue to be framed as it was as a justification to go to war. The history of WMD in Saddam's Iraq, and its use, was well documented; the status of the situation at the time of our invasion irrelevant. What was relevant was the broader orientation of the regime in its associations and support of the pan IslamicFascist movement, considerable, well documented and clearly threatening to all except those who wear rose colored glasses. As for the WMD issue specifically, an explanation remains to be made for clear evidence of Russian support and complicity in what appears to have been a removal program conducted in February 2003, just prior to our invasion. What might have been removed, perhaps to Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, consistently under Syrian control? The Russians have never been publicly called on this, possibly for security reasons unclear at this time. Other resources within Iraq itself remain unexplored, or unrevealed for security reasons.
I re-visit these points as we move forward on the issue of Iran, and what to do about it. Actually, what to do about Iran, to this Observer, is pretty obvious. The problem here is the public relations problem of dealing with a domestic American opposition to our own national security interests. Stay tuned. JES
06/23/06 The Mountain Observer has consistently pointed out over a long period that the issue of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq was never over whether they existed, but rather, where are they. It has also always been our consistent position that the status of that existence was irrelevant to the decision to oust Saddam, as opposed to the future threat. Apparently shy, for diplomatic reasons, about distracting from perceived useful working relationships with the French, Russians and Chinese, the Bush Administration has been reluctant to tell all that it really knew about WMD in Iraq. Part of our beneath the table information for close to 3 years has been that in early 2003, the Russians were instrumental in assisting Iraqi evacuation of materials into Syria. While some evidence supporting this theory has existed for some time, additional hard documentation is necessary. All along, this and other WMD evidence, including linkage to al Qaeda operations, has existed under the table. Warehouses full of files in Baghdad, Bahrain and Dubai have cooked in the sun awaiting the qualified hands and feet to disseminate, translate and piece together the great puzzle. Congressional pressure, thank you Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-MI, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, to begin release of these materials to the public has resulted in some movement in this direction, and is yielding some results; still only the tip of the iceberg. Now watch Lefties deny that Sarin gas is a WMD. However, we have only gotten started. The Mountain Observer has a list of what to expect, and it will be amusing to watch Democrats, and their allies in the MS Press twist in the wind as this process unfolds. George W. Bush did not lie, and the Left will go down hard on this issue. JES
04/18/06 Update on Iraq. Since the first of 2006, the failure of Iraqis to form a new central government appears to be the first hard line run up against the President's polices for post Saddam Iraq. The eventual outcome of this effort remains up in the air, however it is looking very tenuous. The root of the difficulty is the generations old tensions between the Shiite and Sunni, in reality a theological civil war, world wide, and of the ages. The republican "democratization" of Iraq has been a calculated risk from the beginning. The Mountain Observer has been concerned for some time about the mission creep that has grown into our effort. The original policy decision of preemptively striking Saddam's Iraq to remove him and WMD, was correct. In the "War on Terror" the pre- 09/11 complicity of Saddam with al Qaeda has been well documented, with further evidence continuing to accumulate. As for the WMD, the issue is still open. The WMD did exist. Where is it? Most informed analysts suspect Syria, and further understanding of Russian complicity in removal efforts just prior to our attack remains to be developed. The effort to re-build the nation, well intended, but more spacious. We have supported the President, without regrets, through this entire effort, But now the problems faced by Iraq must be confronted by Iraqis. This does not mean cut and run. Our broader long term interests in the region, including foremost the maintenance of a reputation for sticking by friends, and we have many in the region, is of capital concern. What the President needs to do is to restructure our priorities more specifically around our own national defense and policy interests, which is what characterized our original preemptive strike. The nation building thing is a bridge too far beyond what I have always had in mind. At the same time, to accuse the President of being too Wilsonian attempts an analogy that doesn't work. That is an analogy deeply flawed by Presentism. Wilson was an internationalist, while Bush overall has been focused on American interests, however sometimes seeking international support and cooperation where it did not and could not exist. The real problem here, as I have said all along, is that our President is genuinely a nice guy, and by default, expecting reciprocity. He has been sometimes vulnerable to the subterfuge and disingenuousness of others. However, as for Iraq, we have other priorities to move on to, and it is time for Iraq to assume responsibility for themselves.
03/23/06 Referring back to my comments below (03/18/06) I ponder on the timing of the government's decision to finally release this material [PRE-WAR IRAQI FILES] to the public. For months many of us have wondered why the administration would withhold information that we were sure all along would bolster the President's case. One reason, of course, would be the President's natural reticence at appearing to engage in a self serving political exercise that might deflect from the true policy import of the material. One thing that the President's enemies have never understood about Bush is that, as a man of genuine principle, his actions and decisions have always been guided by what he sees as the responsibilities of his office as opposed to personal political calculation. So it is that in the context of this understanding, I ponder on the timing of the release of these materials now; was it a calculated decision, or coincidental? Whatever the real reasoning, the timing, I believe, will prove devastating to Democrats going forward into both new election seasons. Like timed release medical capsules, the analysis and understanding of this material will work at the pace of a slow but steady boil on the continuing public debate over Iraq, al Qaeda and pre-emption into the Fall of 2006, and beyond. Coupled with the developing public embarrassment of the major media over their leftist political tilt against the President, the drip, drip, drip of truth by the President's defenders is slowly forcing the wacko left to stand out in the Sun. Perhaps the timing is not a coincidence. Perhaps the President has finally come to a point of understanding that his domestic political enemies are just that; his domestic political enemies. Perhaps he has come to realize that the lies and deceptions told about him, and his supporters, by the left, need to be surfaced, not in his behalf , but in behalf of the interests of a right thinking nation, and in recognition of what is properly owed the men and women of our military services for their service to the nation. His "red state" support has understood this all along. JES
03/18/06 The vast trove of captured files from Saddam's Iraq are now being released by direction of National Intelligence Director John Negroponte to the internet. Go to http://www.dni.gov/release_letter_20060316.html Keep trying; it's very busy, and will be for months. The warehouses in Baghdad and Dubai are stuffed, and the government finally had to admit that at the pace they were going (best guess, only 5% processed) it would take them years. The new policy, totally unprecedented, is to ask for public help in translation and analysis. Thank you Sen. Rick Santorum R-PA and House Intelligence Chairman Peter Hoekstra, R-MI for pursuing this matter with Mr. Negroponte. Part of the government's problem has been finding reliable people who understand Arabic. JES
03/05/06 The time has come to make some adjustments to the War on IslamicFascism. We are in the midst of a domestic political collapse for the President's strategies, to date, that at times have been confusing, inconsistent, and poorly presented. At the core of these policy concerns is Iraq. On the Bush side of the ledger the problem has been a mission creep, both forced by events on the ground, but also, and I would argue primarily, by unrelenting domestic political stabs in the back. Simply put, al Qaeda has been successful in mining the politics of the American Left to subvert our efforts in Iraq. There were also problems with our original assessment as planned, (intelligence corrupted, partially by a longstanding internal policy war with ideological overtones) of the task to be faced post Saddam, whom, I must point out, is still a player. The President's original assessment of the need to take out Saddam Hussein preemptively was correct in the opinion of the Mountain Observer. Today, there is no reversal on my part in the wisdom of that decision. I must also remind readers that the WMD problem remains to this day, not that WMD did not exist, but where did it go. That remains an open issue. (Elsewhere for more detailed discussion). Moreover the original list of justifications for our pre-emptive action was much larger, and most significantly included the now well established fact that the Saddam regime was very well hooked up with al Qaeda in a common goal to subvert the West in general, and the United States in particular irrespective of their mutual differences. (Elsewhere for more detailed discussion). It is on this basis, as a direct threat to our national security, that this American Nationalist Conservative has always supported this President, not the grander goals of neo-conservatives more exercised with nation building in a Western image. (e.g. Go to Letter 241 05-07 then go to 09/25/05.) I have never objected to the idea of building republican democracy in Iraq in principle, except that my residual skepticism has been muted by a priority of supporting a President in the face of outlandish, and I believe actionably subversive speech and activity on the part of the American Left. Selling freedom is not a bad idea, within the practical limits of the moment, and unfortunately for our side those practical limits have been defined by domestic political duplicity and ignorance, willful or otherwise, and otherwise subject to the Patty Hearst Syndrome of falling for your would be captors.
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11/22/05 I guess it still needs to be pointed out that the WMD's remain unaccounted for. The available evidence points to Syria, if not by now far beyond, or both, perhaps with the complicity of Russian resources. Clear photographic evidence of the truck convoys in the last 30 days prior to our attack is on hand. The puzzle is not complete without understanding the linkage of motives and behavior of those with a stake in covering up their participation in the Oil for Food scandal. Follow the WMD's; follow the money. Analysts are still plowing through mountains of captured documentation in a warehouse in Iraq. For security reasons there is much that is known that has either not been released, or has been withheld over concern of mis-representation by those with hostile intentions toward our efforts. Such is the price of the civil war here at home. In spite of the best efforts of the New York Times, eventually the truth will surface; we hope not too late. JES
11/21/05 Our problem with Iraq is not in Iraq, it is here at home. It appears that decades of wear and tear on the culture may be finally catching up with our traditional ability to stand together through adversity and challenge. The American people appear to be losing their backbones, and good judgment, and the price that will be paid in the end may be the country itself. After witnessing the nineties, I am neither surprised or shocked; just profoundly sad. At some point we will need to pick up the pieces, of what is left. Our President, George W. Bush, has had the matter of international terrorism, and Iraq's place in it, generally well diagnosed from the beginning. We can quibble about details and tactics, but the pre-emptive response against Iraq was absolutely correct, and the WMD issue is beside the point. If they have their way, the critics will have oceans of blood on their hands, and no, it will not be Bush's fault. It will be the fault of those who press today for us to cut and run, and the consequences will dominate the Century ahead. Who will be the next Pol Pot? Yes, our own Civil War is back on the table. At stake is the very future and existence of our country and civilization. So it appears from the mountain top. JES
MO 04 07 Charles A. Duelfer, Chief U S Weapons Inspector, Iraq Survey Group, released a damning report (10/06/04)linking the mystery of the missing WMD to the corruption of the "United" Nations Oil for Food program, which clearly indicts the Coalition of the Bribed, as in France, Germany, Russia and the "United Nations". Go to www.cia.gov and read the full report for yourself. Here we find the pieces of the puzzle that fully explain the configuration of the foreign policy of the Bush Administration, which has been absolutely correct all along. This is a fairly complex matter. If you seriously want to understand the situation with respect to Iraq, and the overall War on Terror (I think more precisely the War on Islamic Fascism), then you will need to understand what is actually in this report, which you will never see in the New York Times. After you have studied this report, if you need help connecting the dots, I invite you to ask me for help. My e-mail is MountainObserver@2ndAmendment.net . If your priority is political partisanship, forget it. If you are an American, I welcome your thoughts, and constructive dialog. Meanwhile, the Iraq Survey Group continues to plow through mountains of captured files and ammo dumps for continuing information. If you are a loyal American, and can read Arabic, Uncle Sam wants you!
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FMOWEB 110-041.1 FOREIGN AFFAIRS- IRAQ-WMD